Isto não é uma recessão é um plano de demolição I

O Banco Central Europeu (BCE) considera que «a recessão global já tocou no fundo» e que na Zona Euro «o ritmo de contracção está a abrandar claramente».

Porém, no boletim mensal de Agosto, o banco central também avisa que a «actividade económica será débil nos meses que restam de 2009».

A instituição, presidida pelo francês Jean-Claude Trichet, constata que em Junho o fluxo de crédito ao sector privado não financeiro continuou moderado, mas que os empréstimos às famílias subiram ligeiramente face ao mês anterior.

O BCE considera que os bancos “reduziram significativamente a restritividade dos critérios aplicados à concessão de crédito”, tendo a incerteza sobre a evolução do ambiente económico “atenuado a procura” de financiamentos bancários.

Ainda assim, avança com um conselho aos bancos comerciais em termos de recapitalização.

“Face aos desafios que se colocam no futuro, os bancos devem tomar medidas adequadas com vista a reforçarem ainda mais as respectivas bases de capital e, quando necessário, devem tirar total partido das medidas estatais de apoio ao sector financeiro, em particular no que respeita à recapitalização”, refere o editorial do Boletim Mensal de Agosto do BCE.


Nos USA:

Credit is not flowing.

In fact, credit is contracting.

That means things aren’t getting better; they’re getting worse.

When credit contracts in a consumer-driven economy, bad things happen. Business investment drops, unemployment soars, earnings plunge, and GDP shrinks.

The Fed has spent more than a trillion dollars trying to get consumers to start borrowing again, but without success.

The country’s credit engines are grinding to a halt. Bernanke has increase excess reserves in banking system by $800 billion but lending is still slow.

The banks are hoarding capital in order to deal with the losses from toxic assets, non performing loans, and a $3.5 trillion commercial real estate bubble that’s following housing into the toilet. That’s why the rate of bank failures is accelerating. 2010 will be even worse; the list is growing. It’s a bloodbath.

The standards for conventional loans have gotten tougher while the pool of qualified credit-worthy borrowers has shrunk. That means less credit flowing into the system. The shadow banking system has been hobbled by the freeze in securitization and only provides a trifling portion of the credit needed to grow the economy. Bernanke’s initiatives haven’t made a bit of difference. Credit continues to shrivel.
The S&P 500 is up 50 percent from its March lows. The financials, retail, materials and industrials are leading the pack. It’s a “Green Shoots” Bear market rally fueled by the Fed’s Quantitative Easing (QE) which is forcing liquidity into the financial system and lifting equities. The same thing happened during the Great Depression.